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For more on TRIZ in politics see
TRIZ Elects a President
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Some
Results of the 1996 and 2000 Vladimir Proseanic and Svetlana Visnepolschi
Presented at TRIZCON 2002 in April 2002.
1. Some
specifics of TRIZ election consulting Abstract This paper discusses some results of applying TRIZ during the 1996 and 2000 presidential elections in Moldova. The authors were involved in the 1996 election campaign as a group of decision makers supporting two candidates (one of whom won the election in 1996; the other won in 2000). In 1996, TRIZ tools and methods were applied in a presidential election campaign for the first time. A few selected problems and recommended solutions presented in our previous paper address this same topic. In this article, however, we will discuss how TRIZ was applied to running the campaign of two candidates at the same time. Also discussed is the impact that similar TRIZ tools have on different personalities. 1. Some specifics of TRIZ election consulting In 1996 the authors and their colleagues, Dr. V. Timoschenco and Dr. V. Oleynikov, organized a consulting group to apply TRIZ tools to the presidential election campaign in Moldova. The leader of the group, Vladimir Proseanic, was experienced in both TRIZ problem solving and TRIZ management, which was a unique combination of knowledge in that field. (Mr. Proseanic was CEO of the first professional TRIZ company from 1986 to 1997.) At that time TRIZ was more or less known to Russian engineers; however, it was entirely unknown to politicians [1] [2]. Considering the high rank of our potential customers, we did not have the opportunity to explain TRIZ methods to them directly. On the contrary, any attempt to present to them something unique and unknown to the Western world would only be met with criticism and rejection. Moreover, we realized that the results of our work would be judged on the basis of common sense, not on the basis of the paradoxical TRIZ philosophy. Therefore, we were obliged to keep the theory to ourselves and deliver "pure" solutions only. There is another important aspect related to consulting for high-ranking politicians. Because the client should accept your recommendations directly (rather than through intermediaries), each solution concept must satisfy the following criteria:
But there was good news about election consulting. As every TRIZ specialist knows, all TRIZ consulting projects – whether technological or business-related – are associated with a significant drawback: once the project is finished, we seldom receive feedback from the customer. And without information regarding a customer’s utilization of our solutions, we must estimate the effectiveness of our work indirectly using such statements as "the customer is happy," "the customer gives us good references," or "the customer awarded us another project." In the best case, the customer’s success increases after our consulting. This fact, however, can not exclude the possibility that the customer simply started working harder under competitive pressure. The critical features of election consulting are:
Accepted recommendations can be implemented within weeks or even days, and are often evident in the mass media. Therefore, we could observe directly how our solutions were used and thereby determine their effectiveness in the real world. Due to various circumstances, our customers for the 1996 election often chose to implement our solutions only partially. We were also surprised to observe that some of our solutions were implemented against our recommendations. More astonishing was the fact that these solutions were successful anyway due to the high systemic (excessive) nature of TRIZ solutions. No doubt such successes were due in part to the fact that the opposing candidates had nothing comparable to the solutions that TRIZ offered. 2. Ideal Ultimate Result and conceptual model We offered our services to two of the three main candidates. One rejected our offer because he considered himself strong enough to win without special decision-making support. And indeed, public opinion for him was unanimous. Moreover, he had confidant advisers who didn’t want competition from "outsiders." The other candidate accepted our offer because at the beginning of the campaign he had strong doubts as to his prospects for winning. Within two weeks we received another request, from the candidate who was ranked as least likely to win. This candidate had only recently appeared on the political scene and represented an unpopular political party – he was therefore not taken seriously by the general public. After careful consideration we decided to accept the request as legally and morally appropriate, due to:
Thus we had the opportunity to compare how different personalities apply analogical TRIZ solutions. We started by creating a conceptual model for each candidate's staff. (Later, we confirmed that such a model should be created at the onset of any management procedure – election campaign, business establishment, reorganization, etc.) The first step in creating the model was to formulate the Ideal Ultimate Result (IUR) of the election campaign for each candidate and for his/her staff. When formulating the IUR, we took into consideration the political plans of the candidate and of his supporting political movement, as well as his/her professional and personal intentions and hopes. Simply stated, the IUR in an election need not be the presidency and may sufficiently differ from the goal indicated by the candidate. If, however, the candidate does not accept the suggested IUR or comprehends it differently, it is highly unlikely that his opinion can be changed. In such situations reason would dictate that the consultant refrain from grand expectations for this election campaign. On the basis of the formulated IUR, a functional model of the staff was created (Figure 1).
The functional model included only those functions necessary and sufficient to achieve the IUR. The analysis of the functions allows for the creation of a simple structural model (Figure 2) that satisfies the following criteria:
The structural model was received by the candidates in different ways. Candidate A didn't want to accept it at first, but with time and under pressure from his regional staff, his team understood the necessity of the model. Candidate B simply said "okay" and started entering specific names into the diagram boxes. (It can be said that candidate B’s staff, having fewer resources by far, worked much more effectively.) As a rule, the right structure can resolve many additional problems. The most important one is that the functional-structural model (in addition to the Patterns of System Evolution) can become an analytical tool for the short-term prediction of the campaign’s evolution:
A key conflict we revealed and resolved at the beginning of the election campaign was the contradiction that existed between the intentions of several candidates. In particular, candidate D, the strong centrist leader, expected to gain the complete support of the liberal forces during the first stage of the campaign. In his opinion, the left-wing candidates should withdraw from the election on his behalf. The other candidates had their own plans, however. The typical evolution of such a conflict during an election often leads to increased pressure on one side and a confrontational reaction on the other side. According to the Patterns of System Evolution, competing systems can often be combined. We therefore suggested that instead of fighting these conflicts, a method of indirect interaction based on the principle "Bi-system with shifted properties" be employed. The main idea was the following:
This would effectively prepare the public for the union of these candidates in the second stage of the election. The main benefit of the "Bi-system with shifted properties" type of collaboration is that it allows the interests of both participants to be maintained naturally. Moreover, this kind of system gives enables every participant to most effectively use his/her resources and present the candidate to the electorate in the most natural and attractive way. The suggested scheme included a list of main properties for which special changes ("shifts") had been introduced. As time went on, we kept on adding to this list based on new information received, new actions required, and changes to the staff.
4. Applying the Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD) method Most of the problems connected with undesirable phenomena had been solved by applying the Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD) method. At the time the first prototype (in Russian) of the AFD software existed and was effectively utilized. Two examples of the AFD process were presented in [Reference 3]. The experience gained showed us that TRIZ could be successfully applied under conditions that are often considered hopeless:
The same TRIZ tools applied to similar problems, but for different users, will likely yield different solutions. However, when a solution is implemented – either partially, contrary to recommendations, or in an otherwise unsuitable way, the implementation can provide visible, effective results, because:
When considering whether to offer consulting services to a politician, it is probably unwise to rely exclusively on political preferences (both yours and the candidate’s). Rather, to effectively implement the kind of non-trivial solutions obtainable with TRIZ tools, the following characteristics are much more important in a politician:
It is not necessary for the TRIZ consulting group to become part of a candidate’s team. Indeed, it is more effective to maintain an independent position, avoiding involvement in the traditional intrigues of the election process. In the first stage of election campaign (assuming a two-stage election system), you may consult several candidates at once. This will allow you to more effectively apply the TRIZ tools as well as compare the results. Conduct that is wrong in principle -- and sometimes dangerous -- is the following:
The authors would like to thank their colleagues Dr. Victor Timoschenko and Dr. Vladimir Oleinikov, who were members of the consulting team and worked on the project together with the authors.
Vladimir Proseanic received an MS in mechanics from Kishinev Polytechnic Institute, Moldova in 1979. He became a student of Genrich Altshuller, the founder of TRIZ, in 1981, and was later one of the founders of the Kishinev TRIZ school. He was CEO of the Kishinev company Progress, the first company to provide professional TRIZ services. Mr. Proseanic has solved more than 1000 innovative problems for various industries and is one of the most experienced TRIZ professionals in applying TRIZ to business and management problems. Mr. Proseanic managed several projects involving the application of TRIZ to solving problems in banking (including information protection systems and decision-making support for revealing prospective investment directions). He was the manager in the application of TRIZ to decision-making consulting in an election campaign. Mr. Proseanic is a winner of the Soviet Union's National awards in science and innovation; he has 15 SU author certificates and has authored numerous publications. He is currently a project manager and one of the leading consultants for Ideation International. Svetlana Visnepolschi received an MS in electronics from the Leningrad Institute of Precision Mechanics and Optics in 1976. She became a student of Genrich Altshuller, the founder of TRIZ, in 1983. One of her early contributions to TRIZ is the creation of a working algorithm for TRIZ resources (together with B. Zlotin). She later pioneered various projects in the application of TRIZ prediction methods to the development of both industrial systems and businesses, including the Moscow Stock and Commodity Exchange and the election campaign. Ms. Visnepolschi has taught TRIZ for more than 15 years and has authored a book and numerous publications. Since 1985, she has developed and applied the TRIZ-based Anticipatory Failure Determination (AFD) methodology. Since 1997, she has been a project manager for Ideation International and the designer of Ideation's AFD System software.
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This site last updated
06/22/10
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